Insights & news.

On Sunday, Sir Keir Starmer made Scotland the first stop on his inaugural tour of the UK since becoming Prime Minister. The trip was nominally about delivering a ‘reset’ in relations between the UK and Scottish governments, which had grown particularly strained in the latter years of the Conservative administration. Starmer’s visit was also about reassuring the Scottish electorate, which heavily backed the Labour party once again, that he would continue to value them now the votes have been counted. But the visit also reflected the changing dynamic between the Scottish and UK Labour parties, and the growing importance of the Scottish leader Anas Sarwar, who is now the most powerful Labour figure outside the cabinet. As the two leaders embraced in front of Edinburgh Castle, it was clear that Scottish Labour – and particularly Sarwar himself – are now central to the success of the Starmer project.

It was a very sore night for the SNP. As seat after seat was swept away by an incoming Labour tide, party insiders had to face the possibility that they might be left with fewer seats on Friday than predicted by even the most pessimistic opinion poll. In the end, the SNP went from 48 seats to just nine (with one still to declare as of writing). Labour, by contrast, have been toasting an historic victory in Scotland that surpassed its own expectations. In the cold light of day, the SNP needs to take stock and acknowledge a few home truths.

As the General Election campaign moves into its closing stages, observers could be forgiven for stifling a yawn. After their most accident-prone campaign in living memory, the Tories are now circling the electoral plughole and will probably be relieved when it’s all over. Labour are on the home straight with success all but inevitable, a win of historic proportions on the cards, but their campaign too has been fairly muted, even dull, missing much sense of the hope and optimism that accompanied their victory in 1997. It doesn’t matter too much – a win’s a win – and in fact, modest expectations will probably work to their advantage once they have taken their places on the Government benches in the House of Commons.

Labour lead the pack among voters in Scotland with little over five weeks until the country goes to the polls, according to new figures published today by True North. 36% of Scots are set to back Labour in a Westminster vote, with the party continuing to extend its lead in Scotland. The SNP could expect to win a 32% share of the vote — six points down on where they stood just two months ago. The survey, conducted by Survation between 23 and 27 May, shows Conservative and Liberal Democrat support largely unchanged at 17% and 9%. These figures demonstrate that “Labour now have a clear lead in Westminster vote intentions for the first time since the 2014 independence referendum”, according to polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice. On these figures the SNP would suffer considerable losses across central belt Scotland, reduced to a group of just 16 MPs. Labour would return the largest number of MPs from north of the border, with 28 candidates elected. The Conservatives meanwhile are projected to return eight MPs, with the Lib Dems sweeping up the remaining five seats out of a total of 57...

The Westminster rumour mill starting whirling furiously earlier in the day, with Senior Cabinet members pulling out of scheduled media interviews left, right and centre and Foreign Secretary David Cameron summoned home from Albania for talks this afternoon at Number 10. The SNP’s Westminster leader Stephen Flynn sought to nail down the Tory leader on the question at PMQs at lunchtime and Sunak’s answer was as revealing as it was cryptic. On the steps of Downing Street, in the rain, just after 5pm, Rishi Sunak put speculation to bed and pulled the trigger...

You’ve got to admire Jeremy Hunt’s chutzpah. The Chancellor delivered what is probably the last major financial statement before the General Election to a packed Commons Chamber yesterday afternoon. Listening to him, you would never guess that the UK is technically still in recession, clambering out of negative growth after over two years of stagnant economic performance. It is not an enviable record, but Hunt gave a brazen performance, cheered on by the Tory backbenchers in marginal seats he was eager to namecheck as he announced sweeteners across a range of sectors and regions.,,

anuary is hardly the optimal season for camping in Scotland, but with a General Election looming it was only to be expected that the New Year bells would be accompanied by a flurry of political tent pitching. Rishi Sunak’s beleaguered government is rapidly running out of time to turn things around, but despite Labour’s sustained and substantial lead in the polls, the Tories have not yet thrown in the towel. Although the Prime Minister has indicated a preference for an election in the second half of the year, he could well be bluffing. He’s certainly keeping his options open. Astute observers will have noticed that the date of the Spring Budget 2024 has been brought forward to 6 March, when the Chancellor is widely expected to hand out sweeties for everyone...