Scotland Politics Poll:

Labour lead the pack among voters in Scotland with little over five weeks until the country goes to the polls, according to new figures published today by True North.

36% of Scots are set to back Labour in a Westminster vote, with the party continuing to extend its lead in Scotland. The SNP could expect to win a 32% share of the vote — six points down on where they stood just two months ago.

The survey, conducted by Survation between 23 and 27 May, shows Conservative and Liberal Democrat support largely unchanged at 17% and 9%

These figures demonstrate that “Labour now have a clear lead in Westminster vote intentions for the first time since the 2014 independence referendum”, according to polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice.

On these figures the SNP would suffer considerable losses across central belt Scotland, reduced to a group of just 16 MPs. Labour would return the largest number of MPs from north of the border, with 28 candidates elected. The Conservatives meanwhile are projected to return eight MPs, with the Lib Dems sweeping up the remaining five seats out of a total of 57.

While a Scottish Parliament is still two years away, Anas Sarwar will be buoyed by figures showing his party could be on course to become Holyrood’s largest in 2026. While the SNP remains marginally ahead on constituency voting intentions, Labour’s four-point lead on the regional list would give them 48 seats to the SNP’s 42. Labour would, however, remain 17 seats short of a majority in these circumstances.

Despite voters turning their backs on the SNP, support for independence remains at 45% almost a decade on from Scotland’s independence referendum in 2014.

In line with an uptick in his party’s fortunes, Sir Keir Starmer is now the most popular leader of a Westminster party in Scotland with a net favourability rating of +3%. Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings are at rock bottom on -38%.

None of Scotland’s political leaders are seen in an overwhelmingly positive light, with Labour’s Anas Sarwar splitting opinion with a -3% approval rating overall and the SNP’s new leader John Swinney on -7%

Commenting, True North Managing Partner Fergus Mutch said: 

“With five long weeks of campaigning ahead, it’s very much Labour’s election to lose.

“These figures suggest that they are primed to overturn a score of SNP-held seats in central belt Scotland and return the most MPs to Westminster. With momentum on the side of the Labour Party UK-wide, it will require a powerful response from any party seeking to halt this juggernaut.

“That said, the difference in vote share between Labour and the SNP remains fairly marginal — and these figures are tighter than suggested by other polls in recent weeks.

“The SNP will be hoping that with new leadership they can find renewed purpose which can at least stem the predicted losses, if not completely turn the tide.”

Renowned polling expert and President of the British Polling Council, Prof Sir John Curtice, said: 

“The fallout from Humza Yousaf’s termination of the Bute House Agreement has enabled the SNP to install a somewhat less unpopular leader in John Swinney. However, Mr Swinney’s rating is well below what Nicola Sturgeon enjoyed before she resigned as the SNP’s head last year, and the downfall of Mr Yousaf has not provided an immediate remedy for the SNP’s electoral difficulties.

“Rather the fallout from the termination of the Bute House Agreement has further weakened the grip of the SNP on the loyalties of Scotland’s voters. The party’s support for Westminster is as much as four points down on the beginning of the year. Fewer than two in three of those who would vote Yes in an independence referendum are currently minded to vote for the party.

“As a result, Labour now have a clear lead in Westminster vote intentions for the first time since the 2014 independence referendum.

“As the general election campaign gets under way, the SNP face the prospect of severe losses at the beginning of July, and thus the possible loss of its coveted status as the third largest party at Westminster. The party badly needs to try and persuade Yes supporters to return to the party fold.”

For more True North news and insight click here

Fergus Mutch

Managing Partner

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