Insights & news.

True North has published the first tranche of its latest issues poll and we partnered with Scottish Financial Enterprise to create impactful thought leadership in today’s The Times.

On Sunday, Sir Keir Starmer made Scotland the first stop on his inaugural tour of the UK since becoming Prime Minister. The trip was nominally about delivering a ‘reset’ in relations between the UK and Scottish governments, which had grown particularly strained in the latter years of the Conservative administration. Starmer’s visit was also about reassuring the Scottish electorate, which heavily backed the Labour party once again, that he would continue to value them now the votes have been counted. But the visit also reflected the changing dynamic between the Scottish and UK Labour parties, and the growing importance of the Scottish leader Anas Sarwar, who is now the most powerful Labour figure outside the cabinet. As the two leaders embraced in front of Edinburgh Castle, it was clear that Scottish Labour – and particularly Sarwar himself – are now central to the success of the Starmer project.

It was a very sore night for the SNP. As seat after seat was swept away by an incoming Labour tide, party insiders had to face the possibility that they might be left with fewer seats on Friday than predicted by even the most pessimistic opinion poll. In the end, the SNP went from 48 seats to just nine (with one still to declare as of writing). Labour, by contrast, have been toasting an historic victory in Scotland that surpassed its own expectations. In the cold light of day, the SNP needs to take stock and acknowledge a few home truths.

As the General Election campaign moves into its closing stages, observers could be forgiven for stifling a yawn. After their most accident-prone campaign in living memory, the Tories are now circling the electoral plughole and will probably be relieved when it’s all over. Labour are on the home straight with success all but inevitable, a win of historic proportions on the cards, but their campaign too has been fairly muted, even dull, missing much sense of the hope and optimism that accompanied their victory in 1997. It doesn’t matter too much – a win’s a win – and in fact, modest expectations will probably work to their advantage once they have taken their places on the Government benches in the House of Commons.

Three-quarters of Scots support domestic oil and gas production from the North Sea, according to new polling released today by True North. Less than a month out from the general election, the data shows 75% would rather see the UK meet its energy demands from domestic sources than import from overseas. The Scotland-wide polling, carried out by Survation, comes as the sector takes centre-stage in the ongoing election campaign, while the UK’s energy production hits the lowest level on record since 1948. By a factor of 4 to 1, people see energy companies operating in the North Sea as an economic force for good, according to the polling. That’s despite news of one of Scotland’s largest new oil projects, Buchan in the Moray Firth, has had its production pushed back by a year due to general election uncertainty.

Labour lead the pack among voters in Scotland with little over five weeks until the country goes to the polls, according to new figures published today by True North. 36% of Scots are set to back Labour in a Westminster vote, with the party continuing to extend its lead in Scotland. The SNP could expect to win a 32% share of the vote — six points down on where they stood just two months ago. The survey, conducted by Survation between 23 and 27 May, shows Conservative and Liberal Democrat support largely unchanged at 17% and 9%. These figures demonstrate that “Labour now have a clear lead in Westminster vote intentions for the first time since the 2014 independence referendum”, according to polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice. On these figures the SNP would suffer considerable losses across central belt Scotland, reduced to a group of just 16 MPs. Labour would return the largest number of MPs from north of the border, with 28 candidates elected. The Conservatives meanwhile are projected to return eight MPs, with the Lib Dems sweeping up the remaining five seats out of a total of 57...

The Westminster rumour mill starting whirling furiously earlier in the day, with Senior Cabinet members pulling out of scheduled media interviews left, right and centre and Foreign Secretary David Cameron summoned home from Albania for talks this afternoon at Number 10. The SNP’s Westminster leader Stephen Flynn sought to nail down the Tory leader on the question at PMQs at lunchtime and Sunak’s answer was as revealing as it was cryptic. On the steps of Downing Street, in the rain, just after 5pm, Rishi Sunak put speculation to bed and pulled the trigger...

True North has today unveiled the first tranche of results from our first major Scotland-wide issues poll of 2024. The highlights as follows: By a factor of 5 to 1 people across Scotland think that energy companies operating in the North Sea have a positive impact on the UK economy. Despite calls from some political quarters to accelerate the winding down the UK’s oil and gas production, three quarters of Scots think that the UK should meet its ongoing demand for hydrocarbons from domestic sources — with less than 10% of people who think we should rely on imports...

True North Advisors was delighted to be joined by Professor Sir John Curtice to discuss thefindings of the strategic consultancy’s latest poll. Managing Partner Fergus Mutch chaired a discussion between Professor Curtice and TrueNorth’s Senior Advisors, Dr Eilidh Whiteford and Andrew Liddle, on Survation’s findings.The poll indicates a significant shift in the Scottish political landscape, […]