Analysis from True North's Head of Policy Development and Research, Dr Eilidh Whiteford
John Swinney should take great personal satisfaction from the SNP emerging from these Scottish Parliament elections as the largest party for the fifth consecutive term, with a convincing victory that surpassed many expectations.
While SNP vote share and seats are slightly down on 2021, we should not underestimate Swinney’s achievement in turning around an SNP ship that looked to be sinking fast when he took the helm in May 2024. The party was trailing Labour in Holyrood polls, grappling with policy failures, overshadowed by scandal, and bracing itself for the historic Labour General Election victory in July that year that could have – should have – paved Anas Sarwar’s path to Bute House.
But while Swinney has Keir Starmer to thank for the policy blunders that punctured Labour’s momentum, and Reform to thank for splitting the votes of his opponents on the right, he should take a lot of personal credit for steading his party and making the SNP electable again. This is his victory and he should relish it.
Winning elections is one thing; governing well is quite another. Now Swinney has his own mandate, it is time for him to put his own stamp on government. His most astute critics have argued that he has an overly managerial approach – that he exhibits the strengths of a loyal lieutenant, rather than a leader. He has an opportunity now to lay that characterisation to rest by demonstrating that he has what it takes to set and deliver his own agenda.
In the absence of an outright majority, Swinney’s best move will be to work across parties to deliver a programme for government that works for all parts of Scotland and emphasises strategic interventions to address structural social and economic challenges. In my view, seeking a Bute House-style agreement with any party – as previously struck with the Greens – would be a retrograde step. He would be better advised to seek support from other parties on an issue-by-issue basis, working constructively across partisan lines. That’s how Holyrood was designed to work, and Scotland would be all the better for it.
Swinney also has the opportunity now to be more forthright in pursuit of the growth and productivity which most parties recognise the Scottish economy badly needs. There are some deep philosophical differences and competing interests represented in parliament, but there are also areas of partial consensus that can be built upon. Creating better conditions for commerce and industry to thrive, and prioritising delivery of the infrastructure needed to shift gear on an energy transition that has all but stalled would provide a good starting point.
Labour, so recently in real contention, could not have had a worse set of results. Winning Edinburgh Southern and Na h- Eileanan an Iar from the SNP (the latter by just 154 votes) will be no consolation whatsoever for Anas Sarwar. He called on Keir Starmer to resign a few months ago; he will now be considering his own position.
The Conservatives too will be licking their wounds. While they have done enough to hold their historic rural strongholds, the rise of Reform has been disproportionately at their expense, putting marginal right-leaning seats beyond their reach. Only Kirsten Oswald’s slim SNP victory in Eastwood saved their leader Russell Findlay from an ignominious exit from the political stage; had Jackson Carlaw won that seat, Findlay’s chances of holding his regional seat would have been much diminished.
The Greens’ victories in Edinburgh Central, where they toppled Angus Robertson, and Glasgow Southside represent a significant breakthrough for a party that has been unable to translate success on the list into constituency seats until now. These wins also show that disgruntled or disillusioned SNP voters are highly susceptible to a credible Green alternative in urban areas. John Swinney should take note.
However, the big story of this election has been the emergence of Reform as a serious electoral force in Scotland. They dominated the headlines and, arguably, set the agenda. They may have failed to make a breakthrough in the constituencies – despite a very close result in traditionally Eurosceptic Banffshire and Buchan Coast where the SNP held on with a slim 364-vote majority – but they will be sending regional list MSPs to Holyrood from every corner of Scotland. It remains to be seen whether their presence will change the discursive centre of gravity at Holyrood. Malcolm Offord, despite his ministerial experience, has looked less than sure-footed under the full glare of media exposure during the campaign and he will be leading a politically inexperienced group of MSPs. Other parties will want to exploit what they will see as a weakness.
The LibDems will be pleased to have consolidated most of their existing seats. This time around, they have also managed to reach the quota required to gain regional lists seats, so there will be a stronger LibDem presence in the new parliament. In addition, they picked up the new Edinburgh Northern seat, Strathkelvin and Bearsden, and Caithness, Sutherland and Ross (where they ousted the SNP’s Maree Todd). We await the outcome in Skye Lochaber and Badenoch, and Inverness and Nairn in the seat previously held by Fergus Ewing, running this time as an independent against his former party. Gains there, if they materialise, may compensate for the disappointment of losing Shetland to the SNP, which they have held since the advent of devolution.
Those of us who have been watching the Northern Isles closely will know that this result hasn’t come out of nowhere –the SNP has been closing in on a once invincible Lib Dem lead in Shetland for over a decade – but on paper, it looked a step too far this time around. Enter Hannah Mary Goodlad, an outstanding candidate with deep family roots in the islands who ran a truly immense campaign in which she stood as a local champion to be Shetland’s voice in Edinburgh, rather than the SNP’s representative in the islands. This energy professional looks set to be a huge asset in the next parliament. Aspiring candidates for public office could learn a great deal from her approach.
As I write this, the final outcome of the regional list vote is not yet known, but the SNP is unlikely to add to its tally given its unassailable lead in the constituency contests. A question mark remains over who will lead the opposition. Not too many surprises today, but plenty challenges ahead.
Analysis from True North's Head of Policy Development, Andrew Liddle
Sir Keir Starmer has insisted he will not “walk away” after overseeing devastating devolved and local election losses, but there is no doubt the Prime Minister is now on borrowed time.
These results have not only fatally undermined his authority but confirmed the necessity for a change in leadership among a majority of Labour MPs and, increasingly, the cabinet. Loyalists sent out to defend the Prime Minister – such as Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and Housing Secretary Steve Reed – offered only lukewarm backing, with the former calling for “a period of reflection” on the party’s woes. Defence Secretary John Healey also offered veiled criticism of his leader, calling on the Prime Minister to be “bolder”.
That Starmer has not yet faced an overt coup attempt is not down to a lack of appetite among his purported colleagues but rather uncertainty over the cleanest way to remove him. Labour MPs are also wary of how a seemingly indulgent and fratricidal leadership election would impact voters, with the repeated and damaging Prime Ministerial changes of the last government looming large in the minds of many.
Any challenger to Starmer needs the backing of 81 Labour MPs – a high threshold, but one the main pretenders, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting, could now easily surpass. Both, however, are reluctant to be the first-mover and give the appearance of destabilising the government at a moment of geopolitical and growing economic crisis.
Equally, the spectre of Andy Burnham – Labour’s most popular politician – is haunting MPs contemplating a change. The self-proclaimed King of the North has made no secret of his desire to lead the Labour Party but is currently ineligible to run in any contest as he has no seat in the House of Commons. Having been blocked from running in the Gorton and Denton byelection earlier this year, there is no guarantee he would be selected should a seat become available – most likely in his home region of Merseyside – or that he would win a byelection even if he was. Nevertheless, a view that Burnham was on the cusp of a return to the House of Commons would buy Starmer further time – or, more accurately, a stay of execution.
The head winds facing Starmer are only likely to grow stronger. The war in Iran will set back the government’s already troubled growth strategy and push up the cost of living. The Peter Mandelson saga will only continue, with more documents surrounding his controversial appointment due to be released. Perhaps most fundamentally, there is no sense the Prime Minister’s deficient leadership style is going to improve, or that he will not continue to lurch from crisis to crisis as a result.
In the short term, Starmer has sought to get back on the front foot with a King’s Speech next week setting out a raft of new legislation. Press reports have suggested this could be preceded by a cabinet reshuffle, but it is difficult to see how Starmer could make significant changes from a position of such weakness. Other reports have suggested the Prime Minister may set out a timetable for his resignation, although a briefing that Energy Secretary Ed Miliband had advised Starmer to do so was dismissed by the government. More likely is that the Prime Minister will offer yet another reset – perhaps alongside a change among his senior advisors – and a shift to the left in a bid to placate restive colleagues anxious about the rise of the Green Party.
Defending the Prime Minister, Steve Reed suggested voters had punished Labour for not delivering “change”. But, after these disastrous results, most Labour MPs are agreed the one thing the party needs to change is the Prime Minister, and quickly.