New Year, New Battlelines

With just 15 months to go until the next Holyrood election, 2025 may well prove one of the most politically consequential years in the history of devolution.

The leaders of Scotland’s two main parties certainly seem to think so. Less than a week into the new year, and First Minister John Swinney and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar have already both made set-piece speeches in an attempt to shape the weeks and months ahead.

The SNP leader used his address at the University of Edinburgh to announce his “twin commitment to delivery and hope,” arguing that MSPs passing the Scottish Government’s budget was vital to achieving both.

Sarwar, meanwhile, told an audience at the University of Glasgow that his party would take Scotland in a “new direction” as he pledged to relentlessly challenge the SNP on its record of public service delivery. Notably, the Scottish Labour leader also hinted that he would announce new policy positions over the next 12 months, setting out not just why but how his party would better deliver for voters.

Both speeches follow a tumultuous six months in Scottish politics. Despite being routed at the General Election in July, recent polling suggests the SNP has recovered some ground amid growing discontent with Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership at Westminster.

A Norstat poll for the Sunday Times in December saw Scottish Labour’s support plummet to its lowest level in three years, with the SNP on course to be the largest party once again at the 2026 election.

The poll also put support for Scottish independence at 54 percent once “don’t knows” are excluded – its highest level in four years. However, the SNP still remains chastened after its defeat in July, and has suffered a series of defeats in local government by-elections across the country.

All this means that Scottish politics remains very much in the balance as we enter 2025. As Swinney and Sarwar’s speeches show, it is still all to play for.