The King Over the M6

Sir Keir Starmer enters Labour Party conference this weekend fighting for his political life. 

A scandal involving his ambassador to the United States, coupled with a dissatisfying reshuffle, have left the Prime Minister uniquely vulnerable. Less than a month into the new parliamentary session and Labour MPs are now asking when Starmer will resign, rather than if.

Even these conversations – initially confined to whisperings in tea rooms and mutterings in corridors – have been blown into the open by the King Over the M6, Andy Burnham. The Mayor of Greater Manchester’s decision to effectively announce his bid to displace Starmer as Labour leader in advance of the conference is unsurprising and surprising in equal measure.

The formerly slick Brownite minister has earned many followers with his Britpop-brand of devolved government, and his long-harboured ambitions to take over as national party leader are apparently undimmed by his two previous failed attempts. Yet the timing of his announcement is nevertheless curious. Without a seat in the House of Commons, he has effectively stated his desire to defenestrate Starmer without the practical means to do so, while also risking alienating party supporters who will despise disloyalty even more than they despair of Starmer.

Whether or not Burnham’s move proves premature, it has certainly given cover to critics of Starmer’s leadership to be more vocal. Expect the conference fringe events to feature Labour MPs, and even cabinet ministers, openly analysing the failings of their leader – and perhaps indicating how they think they would manage things better.

In practice, this will leave Starmer – as well as Rachel Reeves – seeking increasingly bold policy manoeuvres to try and regain the initiative. For all the Prime Minister’s grandiose claims only 15 months ago that he would put country before party, he will increasingly need to put personal preservation ahead of both.

In the context of the coming week in Liverpool, that means throwing plenty of red meat to Labour Party members. Starmer’s recent recognition of Palestinian statehood sits firmly in this vein, and the Prime Minister and Chancellor’s advisors are also mulling whether they can announce an end to the totemic two-child benefit cap at conference without spooking the increasingly skittish bond market.

But while such announcements may help blunt Burnham and get the beleaguered Prime Minister through conference, they will not address the fundamental issues facing his leadership – a lack of economic growth coupled with strained public finances. For that, attention will quickly turn to the budget on November 26. With the rivals now circling, that may well prove Starmer’s last chance to save his premiership.