The results may still be coming in, but there is no question it is Reform UK’s night.
Nigel Farage’s insurgent outfit managed a remarkable victory in the Runcorn and Helsby byelection, their six-vote victory belying the fact they have successfully overturned a Labour Party majority of 15,000 won barely 10 months ago. Elsewhere, Reform UK has won the Greater Lincolnshire mayoral race and run Labour uncomfortably close in several others. At a local authority level, Farage is mauling Labour and Conservative councillors alike.
This astonishing set of results is likely to have a significant impact on UK and Scottish politics.
For Starmer, this was effectively a referendum on his first year in office and, in that respect, it is damning. Voters are clearly not impressed with him or Rachel Reeves, and the poor results are only likely to enhance plans for a reshuffle, although the naturally cautious Starmer will be wary of conducting anything that could be perceived as radical or panicked. Expect most of the great offices of state to remain with their incumbents, with wider changes among more junior Secretaries of State and at a ministerial level.
Meanwhile, Reform UK’s victory will likely have an effect on policy too. Farage is – to use Winston Churchill’s description of Joseph Chamberlain – a politician who can “make the weather” and his concerns are now likely to become Starmer’s. Thus, we can expect an acceleration away from the Labour Party’s net zero agenda and a greater focus on growth and national security, although international events – rather than local election results – may well be cited as the cause. How more progressive members of the cabinet such as Ed Miliband will navigate that shift remains to be seen.
True North's Senior Advisor, Andrew Liddle
Away from Labour, it is clear Reform is a party with momentum behind it, and it will hope it can carry this into its next big electoral test – the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Scottish Parliament byelection in June. This will be Reform UK’s proper electoral debut in Scotland, and its performance here will give a good indication of how it could impact Holyrood elections next year, with most polls already suggesting it could win a dozen MSPs or more.
Back in Westminster, it is also clear Reform presents an existential threat to the Conservative Party, and Farage was quick to claim the results showed his party was now “the official opposition” to Starmer. Kemi Badenoch was already struggling as leader before Thursday and the pressure on her may now become irresistible, with Conservative MPs otherwise fearing they will be completely overtaken by Reform.
A word of caution though. In the now more than 100 years since the Labour Party first shattered the Liberal-Conservative duopoly on UK politics, there have been many further attempts to break the mould – but all have failed. Oswald Mosely’s New Party and Jeremy Thorpe’s renewed Liberal Party gave it a good shot, but it was Roy Jenkins’ SDP who came closest. The centrist renegades won a series of stunning byelections against the odds and at one point were polling at almost 50 percent. But the SDP would return only 23 seats at the 1983 General Election, despite winning 25 percent of the national vote – barely two points less than Labour – and slowly faded from there. Enthusiasts for Reform – and those boldly predicting the end of two-party politics in the UK - would be wise to keep that in mind.
Yet that does not negate the immediate political ramifications of these results. Starmer has quickly grown used to waking up to bad news since July, but these results provide the first tangible and damning verdict on his government to date. Where Starmer goes from here may well decide the future of his premiership.