Beginning of the end: The shattered authority of Sir Keir Starmer

It is now a question of when and not if Sir Keir Starmer will resign as Prime Minister.

Almost any number of events could cause MPs to break cover, and it seems perfectly possible that next week’s budget could now be a catalyst. The fiscal event on 26 November has been badly mishandled, with endless briefing about potential tax rises paralysing large parts of the economy. The government’s decision to brief that income tax rises were inevitable – only to row back – spooked the bond markets and undermined Rachel Reeves’ credibility.

Speculation on what will or won’t be included remains rife, but it seems clear that whatever is announced is likely to disappoint. Should MPs once again face furious messages from their constituents, many will conclude that enough is enough.

Starmer’s sudden vulnerability stems from his repeated missteps, but came to a head with the recent briefing that Wes Streeting, the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, was organising against the Labour leader. That was meant to shore up Starmer’s authority. Instead, it fatally undermined it. Observing the Prime Minister now – barely 18 months after his landslide general election victory – it is difficult not to recall Shakespeare’s words in Macbeth: “Now does he feel his title hang loose about him, like a giant’s robe upon a dwarfish thief.”

The absurdity of Number 10’s attack on Streeting lay largely in its timing. Briefing it out just before the Health Secretary was due on the government’s daily media round handed him the perfect platform to rebut the claims and display his trademark humour and coolness under fire. It made him look more of a leader, not less, and has undoubtedly burnished his credentials.

More fundamentally, the attack was misdirected. Starmer’s allies seem convinced the primary threat comes from inside the Cabinet, but this is a misreading. Most of his top team know their positions owe more to time served than aptitude; their survival depends almost entirely on his. A leadership contest would plunge them into a bitter succession battle and offer the more talented among the 2024 intake a rare chance to assert themselves, upending the existing order.

In contrast, many backbenchers – particularly those in Scotland with small majorities – now see a change of leadership as essential to their own survival. Months of defending unpopular policies, many of which have now been reversed, have eroded their credibility. If Labour suffers a poor result in the devolved and local elections in May, the loss of MSPs and councillors would further weaken constituency operations, leaving MPs even more vulnerable.

But even if the Budget does not prove fatal, it seems increasingly likely that something else soon will. The forces arrayed against Starmer are now so extensive, and the incentives so starkly aligned, that it is impossible to see how he can recover his authority. For many Labour MPs, removing him is no longer ideological or factional. It is a matter of political survival.