With a year to go until the Scottish Parliament elections, a new poll from Survation – commissioned by True North Advisors – shows the SNP remain most likely to be returned as Holyrood’s largest party with 33% of the constituency vote.
Reform UK look poised to overtake Labour in Scotland, commanding 19% of the constituency vote and 20% on the regional list.
Anas Sarwar’s party are neck and neck with Reform in constituency voting intentions, but set to slip into third place on the list with an 18% share of the vote.
The woes of the Conservatives continue in the face of a challenge from Nigel Farage’s party, recording just 11% support on the constituency vote – on par with the Lib Dems.
Enthusiasm for the SNP continues to lag well behind support for Scottish independence, with 49% of respondents who would vote in favour of that constitutional preference, versus 51% likely to vote against.
Projections from Prof Sir John Curtice on these figures would return the SNP on 58 seats, Labour on 18 and the Conservatives on 13. Reform would move into second place as the main opposition party on 21 seats, with the Lib Dems and Greens on 10 and 8 seats respectively.
Commenting on the poll, Prof Sir John Curtice said:
“After its success in last week's English local elections, Reform now pose a significant threat to the Conservatives' and Labour's prospects at Holyrood too.
“More than one in four of those who voted Conservative in last year's Westminster election and nearly one in five of those who backed Labour have now switched to Reform.
“As a result, Reform's poll rating in Scotland has risen to 20% for the first time and the party is now a serious competitor for the position of principal opposition party at Holyrood.
“The fracturing of the unionist vote is good news for John Swinney. Even though the party's share of the vote is now well down on May 2021, it could still win the bulk of Holyrood's first past the post seats, and as a result, be left with only a little short of its current tally of MSPs at Holyrood.
“Crucially, the fragmentation of Scotland's politics could help ease the path towards another pro-independence majority at Holyrood at a time when, still, almost half of Scotland would like to leave the UK.”
Commenting on the findings, True North’s Managing Partner Fergus Mutch said:
"A year out from a Holyrood election, our latest poll presents a fascinating set of results.
“The SNP remains, by some distance, the largest party but will have to look to other parties for the support needed to secure a working majority.
“The party of independence will, however, be asking itself why its electoral support lags so far behind the 49% of voters who wish to see Scotland go it alone.
“Reform UK, buoyed by their recent success in English local elections, are nipping at Labour’s heels on the constituency vote in Scotland and now a nose ahead on the list.
“Converting these figures into seats, we’re at a tipping point where they emerge as the second party in Scottish politics heading into a May 2026 election – representing a significant breakthrough north of the border.
“Anas Sarwar continues to struggle to catch a break – with the woes of his party at a UK level reflecting on his support in Scotland – and Reform UK nibbling away at enough of his vote share to prove a problem for him.
“The Conservatives, meanwhile, are being monstered by Reform and are at risk of tumbling from second to fourth place in Scottish politics.”