After disastrous local and devolved election results, the laboured resignation of Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham’s dramatic announcement that he will seek a return to Westminster via a by-election in Makerfield, the UK Government is now effectively in paralysis.
Sir Keir Starmer remains Prime Minister, but his authority has collapsed. The central question is no longer whether he can recover, but how and when his departure takes place.
The immediate focus is Makerfield. Burnham’s decision to contest the seat is a high-risk attempt to get back to Westminster to challenge Starmer, but also an opportunity to demonstrate that he can succeed where Labour under Starmer has failed: holding off Reform UK in Labour’s traditional heartlands. Reform performed strongly in Makerfield at the 2024 general election – Labour has a notional majority of 5,399 - and has built further momentum through the recent local elections. In the 2016 EU referendum, 65 per cent of voters there backed Leave. A defeat for Burnham would end any prospect of him contesting the Labour leadership.
However, Burnham believes that his personal brand, his record as Mayor of Greater Manchester and his distance from the Starmer government give him a better chance than any conventional Labour candidate. In effect, he is making an all-or-nothing gamble: win, and he becomes the overwhelming favourite to succeed Starmer; lose, and his leadership bid is over before it begins.
If Burnham wins, the political implications would be immediate. He would be eligible to run in any leadership contest and would have shown that he can beat Reform in the kind of seat Labour most needs to hold. That would make it difficult for Labour MPs to resist the argument that he is the only candidate capable of stabilising the party and government. In those circumstances, many MPs – including moderates wary of Burnham’s soft left faction - may decide that a contested and potentially divisive leadership election is not in the party’s interests, and instead move quickly to crown Burnham as Starmer’s successor.
Streeting has said he would run in any leadership contest and has already sought to put Burnham under pressure by announcing his belief that the UK should rejoin the EU. However, whether he could secure the required nominations if Burnham has just won Makerfield is uncertain. Labour MPs may be reluctant to go through the trauma of a leadership contest – and risk undermining Burnham’s credibility with the public - for what would appear to be a near-certain outcome, given Burnham’s overwhelming popularity among party members.
If Burnham loses, the situation is more complex, but Starmer is still unlikely to survive. A defeat would remove Burnham from the field, but losing Makerfield to Reform would also provide Streeting with a clear pretext to launch a leadership challenge. Such a contest would certainly also draw in another candidate from the soft left - potentially Ed Miliband, Angela Rayner or Lucy Powell. Starmer could also choose to stand, as the incumbent leader would be automatically on the ballot.
Either route, however, points to the same conclusion: Labour is almost certain to have a new leader, and the country a new Prime Minister, come the party conference in September. Until then, the business of government is likely to be an afterthought.