Of the 27,155 votes verified in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election last night, it came down to margins in the hundreds for the podium spots.
Reform secured third place on 26% of the vote, the SNP picked up a meagre 29% and Labour bucked the trend in recent local by-election results and Scotland-wide polling in defying the prevailing narrative and the bookies odds to emerge as victors with 31.5% of the vote for their candidate Davy Russell.
The SNP’s vote was down drastically from the 47% they clocked in this constituency in 2021. Ultimately Labour’s vote, also down slightly, proved more resilient and carried the day.
When the firing gun started on this campaign, following the untimely death of incumbent MSP Christina McKelvie, Labour were odds on favourites to win. But as the campaign wore on, the bookies and pundits began to write them off and on polling day the commentariat were talking about a third-place finish: Anas Sarwar’s party would be dragged down by the turmoil and perceived poor performance of his party at Westminster.
Labour should take great credit for how they responded, by shutting out the noise and focusing on what was in front of them. By all accounts their ground campaign was far superior, they knew who their voters were and, crucially, how to get them out to do their duty on the day. Reform, the new kids on the block, threw plenty of money at leaflet drops but lacked boots on the ground. The SNP’s local operation left much to be desired, and has lost valuable institutional knowledge since John Swinney took a cost-cutting axe to key personnel late last year. On these sorts of margins, a well-oiled party machine can make all the difference on the day.
By-elections can be fickle beasts of course. But the result in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse completely changes the narrative in Scottish politics just eleven months out from a Holyrood election. John Swinney put the SNP’s chips on the table with the claim they were the only party that could hold off an insurgent Reform ahead of 2026. What happened on the night gives Anas Sarwar every right to now claim that territory.
Perhaps more significant, given the travails of his colleagues down south, this result gives the Scottish Labour leader the elbow room and restored confidence to be himself and to shape a policy platform and compelling message that voters will rally to. His winning campaign, aside from a fleeting visit from Angela Rayner, was made in Scotland and won by Scottish Labour.
Despite ultimately placing third, Reform’s advance is still remarkable and has major potential consequences for the 2026 election. They are now a genuine alternative in Scottish politics. If this result was to be replicated at Holyrood there would be no clear winner, setting up the intriguing possibility of a rainbow parliament and neither Labour nor the SNP in a position to cobble together a working majority with their preferred clutch of partners.
For the SNP, the ship that John Swinney has taken credit for steadying is now beginning to rock significantly on the political waves. The party lacked a motivating message giving people a reason to vote for them in this election. They wrongly assumed that putting the frighteners up the electorate about stopping Farage would prove effective in splitting the unionist vote. It was a strategy that backfired spectacularly, giving airtime to a Reform party nipping at their heels and achieving little in terms pulling voters away from Labour. The First Minister and his deputy Kate Forbes must face the coming months as if they will lose in May 2026. On the evidence of last night, there’s every chance they could. Those results, replicated across central belt and urban Scotland where seat numbers matter the most to the overall picture, should trouble SNP strategists a great deal. How the party responds in the next few months will be crucial to their fate and future as the government of Scotland.
Scottish Labour’s seasoned and savvy deputy leader Jackie Baillie was out of the traps early last night as polls closed, saying the result was too close to call. The same can now be said for the Holyrood elections next year, with just 335 days to go.
For more on the results, you can listen to the latest episode of the Holyrood Sources podcast here: https://holyroodsources.com/listen