Andy Burnham’s leadership challenge may not be the beginning of the end for Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership, but it is certainly the end of the beginning.
Since the General Election, there has been a growing and uneasy sense within the Labour Party that the Prime Minister is not up to the job. Misstep has followed misstep, U-turn has followed U-turn. Meanwhile, the central challenges facing the country – national security and economic growth – remain, if not worse, certainly no better.
Despite these shortcomings, Labour MPs have remained stuck in a liminal stage: increasingly aware that Starmer is not the right man to take the party or country forward, yet unsure how, or even whether, he could be replaced by someone – at least in theory – more capable.
That uncertainty has now been dramatically shattered by the Mayor of Greater Manchester and his overt bid to win a parliamentary selection, with a poorly concealed plan to replace Starmer after May’s devolved and local elections.
The Labour machine, true to its socialist roots, duly kicked into gear. Rallying around its ailing leader, the party moved swiftly to nip the coup in the bud. Over the weekend, the shadowy National Executive Committee – made up of trade unionists, party apparatchiks, and politicians – voted 8–1 to block Burnham’s candidature, citing the costs and political risks of a mayoral by-election in Manchester should he step down.
Those who believe this is the end of the matter, however, are sorely mistaken. Starmer may have seen off the immediate threat, but his position has nonetheless been fatally undermined.
First, while Burnham’s cack-handed coup has failed for now, it has shattered the illusion that Starmer is untouchable. MPs and even cabinet ministers have so far concluded that loyalty is the better part of valour. With an eye on Michael Heseltine’s failure to unseat Margaret Thatcher, they have kept their doubts private.
That no longer needs to be the case. Burnham has challenged Starmer’s authority and opened the door for others to do the same. Such behaviour can now become the norm rather than the exception.
Second, by blocking Burnham’s selection, Starmer’s fate now hinges on the Gorton and Denton by-election. Anything short of victory will prompt claims that, had Burnham been allowed to run, Labour would have held the seat. Instead, critics will argue, the party handed an opportunity to Reform UK and Nigel Farage.
Victory should be possible. Labour won the seat with more than 50 per cent of the vote just 18 months ago. But Reform were the main challengers, with strong support also for the Greens and George Galloway’s Workers Party. Should Labour bleed votes on both flanks, as polling suggests, Reform could plausibly come through the middle.
Third, whatever the outcome, the saga is a damaging distraction ahead of crucial elections in May. It carries uncomfortable echoes of the final days of the Conservative government, when disunity and constant plotting corroded public confidence. It will also divert money and manpower from key campaigns, frustrating Scottish Labour in particular as it fights to stabilise its position.
Given the salience of May’s results to Starmer’s survival – especially in Scotland and Wales – a poor showing followed by a serious early-summer coup is now all but certain.
Most damaging of all, Starmer is now beholden to events rather than in command of them. His future depends on a string of favourable outcomes beyond his control: an unlikely by-election triumph, a better-than-expected result in May, the continuing loyalty of increasingly disgruntled colleagues.
Achieving one or two might be plausible. All three would be a stretch for even a leader with great political skill and charisma – and Starmer has neither.
By bidding for his by-election, Burnham has fired the starting gun in the race to be the next Labour Prime Minister. Who runs and who wins remains uncertain. But the contest is now unmistakably under way.