Sir Keir Starmer’s reshuffle is not about bringing in new blood. After all, he has appointed only two new faces at cabinet level – Emma Reynolds and Douglas Alexander – with the latter merely returning to the top table, having previously earned his stripes during the halcyon days of the 1997-2010 Labour government.
Of course, there have been more dramatic changes at a junior ministerial level. There are promotions for Martin McCluskey, who joins Scottish colleague Michael Shanks as a minister in the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, as well as former Better Together supremo Blair McDougall, who is taking on a significant role in the Department for Business and Trade. Elsewhere, the appointment of devout Blairites such as Josh MacAlister to the education brief is likely to ruffle feathers. But on the whole Starmer, while being bold in the scope of this reshuffle, has been cautious in its substance.
Some of this was not for want of trying. With Starmer politically wounded, there was pushback from some cabinet members who could not be moved from their existing brief, including the Secretary of State for Energy and Net Zero, Ed Miliband. Others lobbied hard (and successfully) for their allies at a junior ministerial level, which helps explain the somewhat agonised confirmation of the changes, which were not finalised until late on Sunday. Even the former Secretary of State for Scotland, Ian Murray, found himself back in the government just a day after being dismissed amid a significant backlash at his treatment.
Yet Starmer’s substantive changes are still to come – not in terms of people, but policy. Starmer’s decision to reorder his top team is not only a recognition that things have not gone to plan since the election last July, but also that the direction – political and economic - needs to change. This is easier to do if there is a new minister calling the shots than an incumbent having to reverse high-profile calls they have previously made.
One of the first acts of the new Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, for instance, has been to pursue housing asylum seekers in disused military facilities – a policy her predecessor discounted. Meanwhile, the ink was barely dry on Angela Rayner’s resignation letter when Downing Street began briefing they intended to water-down her controversial Workers Rights’ Bill, now in the latter stages of the legislative process. Peter Kyle, another uber Blairite, held a call with more than 100 CEOs immediately after taking over at the Department of Business and Trade as the government seeks to repair its fractious relations with business.
More fundamentally, Starmer’s decision to bulk out the economic team in Number Ten earlier in the week - as well as bring Treasury apparatchik Darren Jones directly into his chain of command - is evidence Morgan McSweeney, The Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff, and his aides intend to take a greater hand in the coming budget and wider economic management. This, coupled with the failed attempt to dislodge Miliband from the energy brief and significant interventions GB Energy chief Jurgen Maier and Octopus boss Greg Jackson on the importance of oil and gas to our energy mix, indicates the government is undertaking a serious rethink around its attitude to the North Sea ahead of the November 26 budget.
While Starmer and his team will be broadly happy with the outcome of these manoeuvrings, they are not without risk for the ailing Prime Minister. Once again, he appeared beholden to events rather than in control of them, with Angela Rayner’s resignation apparently prompting a wide-spread reshuffle that had previously been trailed as tinkering at a junior ministerial level.
Certainly, the loss of Rayner will further alienate the left of the party (and the country), particularly given Starmer’s apparent focus on tacking to the right to undermine Reform UK. Awkwardly, she will also need to be replaced as Deputy Leader in a contest that will allow grievances with the direction of Starmer’s government to be aired in public.
More broadly, Starmer’s failure to deliver all the changes he wanted exposes his continuing lack of political capital, which has still not recovered from the welfare debacle, and is likely to be an increasing problem for the government. Many of the 2024 Labour intake remained loyal on controversial issues such as winter fuel payments and benefit cuts in the hope of getting a government job at the reshuffle. Many of those same MPs will now be disappointed and - with a tricky budget on the horizon - perhaps more willing to make trouble having been passed over.
Similarly, the cohort of sacked junior ministers, many of whom supported Starmer through the lean years of opposition, are now out of power and liable to make mischief from the backbenches. Most troublingly, even among those Starmer did promote – and those he did not move at all – there is significant concern about the direction of his government and his ability to turn his fortunes around.
Ultimately, these machinations will buy Starmer some breathing space to navigate November’s budget process, next May’s devolved and local elections and attempt to right some of his earlier missteps. But, with Nigel Farage and Reform UK continuing to ride high in the polls and much of public opinion and the Parliamentary Labour Party now firmly convinced Starmer is not up to the job, the challenge he faces cannot be overstated.
Scotland Office
DESNZ
Treasury
DBT
Other Cabinet Changes
Scottish MPs (other new roles)