Andy Burnham’s Makerfield by-election was billed as a modern-day trial by combat. In reality, he romped home without needing to put up much of a fight, securing 55 per cent of the vote and a majority of more than 9,200 – a significant increase on the Labour Party’s performance in the same constituency in 2024.
The question now is what this victory means for the future of the Labour leadership and, more widely, the UK Government.
There are effectively three scenarios that could now play out.
The first is a rapid – and almost certainly disorderly - transition of power. Keir Starmer has publicly insisted that he would contest any leadership challenge, and as incumbent leader he is automatically entitled to appear on the ballot, so in formal terms, can fight on.
In political terms, however, Burnham’s victory makes that position much harder to sustain. The new MP for Makerfield now returns to Parliament with a clear personal mandate, while the recent departures of John Healey and Al Carns have further weakened Starmer’s authority. Further resignations – should he remain stubbornly in post – would surely sap his authority irrevocably. Burnham has indicated he will speak to Starmer this weekend and give him time to consider his position.
The second scenario is an agreed interregnum, with Starmer remaining temporarily in office before a managed handover to Burnham, possibly at the end of this parliamentary session or at Labour Party conference in September. This may appeal to Labour MPs seeking to avoid internal warfare and present the transition as orderly renewal, while also giving Burnham much-needed time to decide what he actually wants to do in office. But it would also create a period of drift in Whitehall, with ministers reluctant to take major decisions before a new administration is in place.
The third scenario is a contested leadership election. Wes Streeting remains Burnham’s most credible potential opponent, but his route to forcing a contest is now difficult. His supporters may be reluctant to blot their copybook with Burnham - and risk losing the chance of ministerial office – by initiating a contest the new MP for Makerfield would be widely expected to win. Instead, Streeting may seek to use his status as Burnham’s most credible opponent to angle for a return to a senior Cabinet position, positioning himself as a necessary figure in any broad-based Labour administration.
In the aftermath of one of the most consequential by-elections in British political history, the immediate question therefore is less whether Burnham has the necessary momentum than how he chooses to use it.
His support base includes figures from Labour’s soft left and the wider anti-Starmer coalition, including Louise Haigh and allies of Ed Miliband. Those who helped build his route back to Westminster will expect to be rewarded, but this is not a factional coup. By winning Makerfield, Burnham has his own mandate and now has enough political capital to lead on his own terms.
Equally, Burnham will need to reassure markets, the civil service and Labour Party moderates that this is a serious incoming administration. That points towards a “big tent” approach, with plum jobs for loyalists balanced by appointments designed to reassure centrists and demonstrate discipline, particularly around public finances, immigration, and defence.
But that all lies in the future. In the short term, the only question now is how Burnham uses his victory to finally force Starmer out, willingly or otherwise.